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DODD Predicting Modeling
DODD Predicting Modeling
New applied analytics project will analyze the adequacy of the existing scoring algorithm for predicting the support needs and anticipated costs of waiver services for individuals with developmental disabilities in Ohio.

The Ohio Department of Developmental Disabilities (DODD) released an RFP to conduct an exploratory applied analytics project to analyze the adequacy of the existing scoring algorithm for predicting the support needs and anticipated costs of waiver services for individuals with developmental disabilities, in both residential and non-residential settings. The project will be awarded to one of the State's 70+ pre-qualified vendors established under Contract 0A1199 Supplement Two in the Life Sciences and Public Health Expertise Domain. 

The Ohio Developmental Disabilities Profile (ODDP) has been used since 2005 as a tool to determine the funding ranges in which people with similar characteristics can likely be served through home and community-based services waivers (HCBS), specifically the Individual Options (IO) Waiver. The ODDP includes questions related to a person’s residence, disability, medical information, sensory/motor skills, communication and cognition, self-care and daily living skills, and routine voluntary care. Based upon the responses, the scoring algorithm determines in which of the nine funding ranges are likely to be sufficient to address the person’s need for paid supports.  

In total, The Ohio Department of Developmental Disabilities administers three Medicaid-funded home and community- based services (HCBS) waivers for people with a developmental disabilities level of care. At this time, the ODDP is not used with individuals enrolled in the Level One (LV1) Waiver and Self-Empowered Life Funding (SELF) Waivers, nor is it used to predict the costs of day and employment supports for adults with developmental disabilities. The new analytics project will focus on analyzing the effectiveness of the current ODDP scoring algorithm with predicting the costs of waiver services for individuals with similar characteristics and support needs. In addition, the selected analytic vendor will make recommendations to DODD regarding any proposed adjustments in the scoring that may improve the accuracy of these predictions and will estimate the fiscal impact of the modifications. 

The project will conduct a comprehensive analysis of ODDP scores, AAI scores, prior authorization requests, administrative review requests, waiver authorizations, cost projections, add-ons, and claims to determine the ability of the ODDP to accurately predict waiver costs.

Based on the analysis, the contractor will make recommendations to DODD for:

  • Potential adjustments to the scoring algorithm to predict support needs and resulting waiver costs for all
    individuals enrolled in HCBS waivers administered by DODD
  • Potential adjustments to the scoring algorithm to predict support needs and resulting waiver costs in both
    residential and non-residential settings
  • Potential adjustments to the scoring algorithm to reduce the need for exception reviews, including prior
    authorization and administrative review requests
  • New funding ranges that reflect the expected ranges in which the comprehensive needs of people with
    similar characteristics can be addressed in residential and/or non-residential settings. One of the scenarios
    should target cost neutrality.

The project will also result in a comprehensive fiscal analysis of the impact of any proposed adjustment to the ODDP scoring algorithm and/or funding ranges for individuals enrolled in HCBS waivers.